CLEVELAND +2.5 over Pittsburgh
The Browns being 3-1 and sitting atop the AFC North is not something we really could’ve imagined, especially not after that rough-looking loss in Week 1. But Deshaun Watson has played well and the defence is holding up despite trading away Myles Garrett.
Indianapolis -3.5 over Washington in England
While Marcus Mariota certainly looked on point last game, we’re not betting on it happening two weeks in a row. This should be a massive Jonathan Taylor game for the Colts.
TAMPA BAY +3.5 over Green Bay
As we noted earlier this week, backup QBs actually have performed well in their first starts this season. The Packers aren’t exactly providing much confidence either. Will this be the week that the Bucs finally buck the trend and cover the spread for the first time in 12 games?
Arizona -1.5 over NEW YORK GIANTS
Things continue to go from bad to worse for the Giants, losing their best pass rusher, Brian Burns, for the season. The Cards have been a lot friskier than anticipated heading into the season, too.
BUFFALO -6.5 over New England
Drake Maye and the Patriots have been a wreck on offence, failing to score more than 20 points in all three games. The Bills, on the other hand, haven’t scored fewer than 24 points and that low point was only because they had five turnovers.
New York Jets +3.5 over CHICAGO
The Bears are coming in on short rest and we’re still not sure which QB we’re going to see starting. The Jets aren’t anything special, but they’ve been clearing the low expectations put on them this season.
HOUSTON -2.5 over Dallas*
The Texans may be winless, but there’s hope on the horizon. If Nico Collins is back, even at less than 100%, that’s a weapon that can do some real damage to this Dallas defence which has trouble slowing down anyone so far. How the coaching staff handled the end of that disaster in Rio shouldn’t be forgotten either and Dallas also has a Thursday night game on the immediate horizon.
L.A. Rams -3 over PHILADELPHIA
There is so little to like about the Eagles – offence, defence, coaching – that we’re surprised this line is just a field goal.
BALTIMORE -11.5 over Tennessee
Now here’s an opportunity for the Ravens to really run wild, with Derrick Henry putting up a huge game against his former team.
Jacksonville +2.5 over CINCINNATI
This might low-key be the best game of the week. Both teams have some flaws, but also have the look of being potential contenders. We’ll give the edge to the Jags getting points in a seemingly equal matchup.
MINNESOTA -10.5 over Miami
The Dolphins were already low on talent before De’Von Achane went down for the season a torn ACL, now there’s just no real hope. The Vikings defence is going come hard at Malik Willis and it’s not going to go well for the visitors.
LAS VEGAS +4.5 over Kansas City
The big question is will the Raiders be able to slow down Kenneth Walker, because the Super Bowl MVP is looking like the missing piece of this Chiefs offence has lacked for years. But, on the other hand, we’re not overlooking a feisty Raiders team playing at home with Brock Bowers back on the field.
L.A. Chargers +7.5 over SEATTLE
Sam Darnold looked incredibly rusty in his first full game of the season, losing to Washington. But, basically, if the Chargers get blown out here, some really hard conversations are going to be had about Justin Herbert and Jim Harbaugh.
SAN FRANCISCO -2.5 over Denver
If the Brock Purdy MVP buzz is going to be for real, he needs to continue his outstanding play against a team that just beat the Niners’ division rivals, L.A.
Detroit -3.5 over CAROLINA
Will the Panthers be able to slow down Jahmyr Gibbs? This figures to be a high-scoring games and the Lions have better high-powered weapons to break it open.
NEW ORLEANS -2.5 over Atlanta
Nice rivalry matchup on Monday night, but we’re not buying the reinvigorated Falcons after just one Thursday night win with Michael Penix back.
Last week: 7-9
Best bets: 1-2
This season: 21-27