CHICAGO -2.5 over New England
When can we honestly start debating if Caleb Williams is the best Bears QB of all-time? Of course it’s early, but it’s not like there’s a high bar to clear. And how much did bettors appreciate the Pats kicking the field goal late instead of going for the TD?
Pittsburgh -3.5 over New Orleans in Paris
We’d expect that the Steelers will get more travelling support for this one, which certainly helps but isn’t the only reason to pick Pittsburgh. Talent-wise the Steelers have the edge and the Saints nearly blew a big lead to J.J. McCarthy last week.
MINNESOTA -6.5 over Indianapolis
The Colts just aren’t a serious team. Firing the GM is a long-term move but shouldn’t provide all that much motivation in the coming weeks. Daniel Jones is likely to be a sitting duck for this high-octane Vikings defence coming off a bye.
NEW YORK JETS -4.5 over Miami
Can the Dolphins show up refreshed after their bye? Maybe, but we’re not going to discount this feisty Jets team that only really seems to be held back by head coach Aaron Glenn.
Cincinnati +2.5 over BALTIMORE
OK, so Lamar Jackson should be back for real this time around after we thought it was a possibility last week. However, it’s another tough divisional matchup and the Bengals come off their bye, ready to attack a Ravens defence that’s still finding its way.
Cleveland -1.5 over TENNESSEE
The Titans win one game and suddenly the sports books think they might be able to do it again? While the Browns are known to play better at home than on the road, Tennessee just doesn’t have the talent or the, it seems, the coaching to match up here. Cam Ward continues to play well below the level expected from a first-overall pick and we don’t see it improving much against a tough defence like Cleveland.
CAROLINA -3.5 over Tampa Bay
Baker Mayfield is a full participant in practice, which should see him start, but is that a good thing? He hasn’t been living up to his big, new contract and giving up the ball too easily. The Panthers are rightfully considered the favourite here and the hook doesn’t bother us all that much.
ATLANTA +3.5 over San Francisco
Have the 49ers finally hit the injury wall? If Mike Evans doesn’t play, we think the home dogs have a great shot of at least covering this line thanks to that half-point hook. San Francisco should be eagerly looking ahead to its bye week to get a bit healthier for the stretch run.
New York Giants +9.5 over HOUSTON
We’re not going to give J.J. McCarthy too much credit for heroics in relief last week against the Saints backups, but we’re also not thinking that the Texans defence is anywhere near where it was last season. This one should be full of offence and a backdoor cover certainly should be in play for the Giants.
Denver -4.5 over ARIZONA
The last we checked, this game isn’t taking place at SoFi Stadium, which doesn’t bode well for the Cardinals. It’s not like there’s much to be impressed about with Bo Nix and Denver’s offence, but perhaps the extra prep time after playing Thursday night will help get it on track.
LAS VEGAS +4.5 over L.A. Rams
Are the Rams going to be OK, or are they actually in trouble, as we dove into earlier this week? Let’s be honest: Sean McVay’s crew has two wins and just one of them came by more than four points. Without Davante Adams, it’s going to be a whole lot tougher, too.
Green Bay +3.5 over DETROIT
We all know how bad the Dallas defence is and just saw the Packers light it up in prime time – and there’s no reason to think it can’t keep humming against the Lions. Detroit’s back end has struggled due to some key injuries and will have trouble keeping up with Christian Watson and Matthew Golden.
Kansas City +2.5 over SEATTLE
Both teams surely should be ranked among the contenders, but it’s harder to get over the Seahawks’ flaws than the Chiefs’ shortcomings. Seattle’s offence is far too dependent on Jaxon Smith-Njigba and the running game hasn’t found its legs. Even in Seattle, we’ll take the Chiefs to pick up a win.
PHILADELPHIA +4.5 over Dallas
Even with the Eagles in a downward spiral, surely the offence can cover this line at home? The Cowboys defence can’t stop anyone and Tanner McKee should improve after another week of first-team practice under his belt.
Last week: 8-6
This season: 44-49
Best bets: 3-3