Is it a case of Super Bowl loser’s curse, some severe regression, or is the Drake maybe just a flake?
We’re three weeks into the 2026 NFL season and last year’s quarterback sensation Drake Maye appears to be imploding.
The Patriots are sitting at 1-2, but it’s the way in which they have performed on offence and how they lost in Jacksonville, that’s the cause for concern.
And it starts with the man under centre.
Why are the numbers so concerning?
Maye has thrown for 200 yards in just one game — 208 against the Steelers — has just one TD pass and six interceptions, which is the most in the league.
Turnovers have become the biggest issue for Maye. Since the start of last season’s playoffs, Maye has nine fumbles and 10 INTs. That makes him the first QB to have those numbers over a seven-game stretch since Jameis Winston in 2019 — the year in which he famously had 30 TDs and 30 INTs.
Maye has an EPA/play (Expected Points Added) of -0.21, which has him ranked 29th among QBs.
For fantasy football players, Maye has been an absolute disaster, scoring fewer than 10 points in each of the first three games — something that didn’t happen once last season.
While the third-year QB surely deserves his fair share of blame, the Patriots offence as a whole has been putrid.
In fact, the 29 points they’ve scored in 30 drives, or 0.97 points per drive, is the worst mark for any team through three games since the 2021 Jets, which had rookie Zach Wilson at the helm. To refresh your memory, that Jets team went 4-13 and scored the fifth-fewest points in the league at 310.
Of course, the ankle injury that prized new addition A.J. Brown suffered in the opener hurt, but it’s not like the Pats don’t have other options.
We can also blame head coach Mike Vrabel’s off-season scandal involving NFL insider Dianna Russini for causing a distraction. We can also point out that owner Robert Kraft got himself tied up in the Ed Sheeran-Macklemore concert tour controversy.
Of course, how much those instances affected the on-field product remains to be seen. The one thing we do know, however, is that if the Patriots can’t right the ship and have a good showing against the rival Buffalo Bills on Sunday, the AFC East is as good as lost and we’re just getting into October.
Why you shouldn’t overlook teams starting backup QBs
Amidst the many upsets in Week 3, there were a few that stood out due to the players that weren’t playing as opposed to the ones that did.
In Washington, Marcus Mariota shocked the defending Super Bowl champion Seattle Seahawks, who were big road favourites. He played well in place of Jayden Daniels, who suffered that gruesome arm injury last week and in spite of some rough conditions.
Not too far north from there, Jameis Winston led the New York Giants to Big Blue’s second victory of the season, providing a steady hand in stormy conditions.
Of course, the team also traded for J.J. McCarthy on Monday, so we’ll see how the QB situation shakes out for the Giants, but there at least seems to be a plan with Jaxson Dart out for the season.
Then, on prime time, third-string QB Case Keenum sliced through the Eagles in a big 27-7 victory as Caleb Williams recovers from a hamstring injury and Tyson Bagent came back from a concussion, but wasn’t ready to start.
So how are these understudies leading their teams to victories?
Well, it turns out that NFL head coaches and offensive coordinators can be pretty smart dudes. With a week to prepare your backup and with the QB already having a good knowledge of the systems in place, coaches can tailor their game plan to account for differences in their skill set as opposed to the starters.
Many teams also opt for backup QBs that have similar traits to their starters or have experience in the offensive system.
So, when the ball is put in their hands, there’s not as big of a drop-off as many fans expect. In fact, through three weeks, QBs that didn’t begin Week 1 as a team’s starting QB have a perfect record of 6-0.
Of course, the results can be much different if a player like Josh Allen or Lamar Jackson goes down, but in many instances, there’s value to be had in backing the backup.
What other trends should you look out for?
How cursed are the Chargers? Since 2013, teams that have 5+ turnovers and a -4 TO margin are 3-81-1 – and including Sunday’s game in Buffalo, the Chargers have been on the losing end of all three of those victories – and Madison Beer wasn’t even in attendance.
In Miami, the one player left to be excited about is now hurt. Dolphins running back De’Von Achane tore his ACL, ending his season and starting a serious conversation about if this team could go winless this season.
There’s three undefeated teams left in the AFC but there will be at least one fewer after Sunday. The Chiefs and surprising Raiders will do battle in Vegas, with Kansas City the favourite heading in.
With Brock Bowers back from his minor knee surgery, there’s a real chance the home team can score an upset against their AFC West rival.